Thu December 26, 2024
This time last year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in the doldrums.
According to political analyst Nadav Shtrauchler, who has collaborated extensively with Netanyahu, “he started very low.” “The lowest point in his life.”
On October 7, the bloodiest attack on Jews since the Holocaust, he was accused by many Israelis of being asleep at the wheel. Some even claimed that he funded Hamas to make it possible.
Even if the fighting in Gaza allowed him to ignore calls for an election, his political support was dreadful. According to polls, his Likud Party’s support had dropped by 25% in just three months.
On the surface, the following year was not particularly encouraging. Tens of thousands of people died, there was regional strife, indictments, and claims of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Nevertheless, Netanyahu has changed his reputation in Israel by the end of the year.
He said, “I am running a marathon,” in a Tel Aviv courtroom earlier this month. He is accused of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, all of which he disputes. “I can run it while carrying 20 kg, and I can run it while carrying 10 kg.”
‘Mr Security’ once again
Throughout the year, Netanyahu has strengthened his domestic political position while simultaneously managing—and, according to his detractors, even starting—a growing regional confrontation.
According to political and polling analyst Dahlia Scheindlin, “he started to bounce back from the very serious losses in the public image in 2024.”
Likud will still lose a few seats in today’s elections, but his support has returned to what it was before October 7. There has been less opposition from people like retired general Benny Gantz. By dismissing Yoav Gallant as defense minister and appointing obedient politicians whose allegiance and connections in the Knesset reduce the likelihood that the extreme right or ultra-Orthodox parties could topple the government, Netanyahu has stifled dissent.
Gaza remains a manacle, with placards featuring hostage faces adorning Israeli streets, although its prominence has diminished due to regional war. Scheindlin contends that it has also been crucial to his success. Since his comeback, he has positioned himself as the sole leader capable and ready to stand up for the Jewish people and stop the establishment of a Palestinian state.
He is once again referred to as “Mr. Security” by Israelis.
“It became something beyond Netanyahu’s failure or the failure of his government the moment Hezbollah got involved,” Scheindlin added, alluding to the Iran-backed militant organization from Lebanon. It proved that the rest of the world is against us and wants to kill us, and that Netanyahu is the only one who truly understands the “octopus threat” posed by Iran. And so he gets the credit for dealing with it as well.”
Netanyahu and his allies even point to the corruption trial and an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) as evidence that he is fighting the “deep state.”
He keeps repeating well-known slogans that are both reassuring and hollow: Israel will win “total victory” and “a Palestinian state is a reward for terrorism.”
Shtrauchler contends that although Iran is a well-known enemy, Netanyahu’s “orthodox” instincts were challenged by the robust military campaign. Prior to October 7, Netanyahu was thought to be rather reluctant to employ risky military strategies overseas.
He claimed to understand how to adjust to a given circumstance. “Politically I don’t think that many would have believed in November or October last year that this would be his status now.”
For a year, Israel kept a low-level conflict in Lebanon, started by Hezbollah in solidarity with Hamas. The Israeli cabinet overruled hawks who wanted an aggressive campaign last fall. At the end of September that changed, and Israel launched a devastating offensive that killed thousands, displaced more than a million, and flattened much of Lebanon’s southern border.
The aggressive strategy led to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar is also now dead. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria severed Hezbollah’s most important supply line from Iran. The Israel Defense Forces dusted off its Syria plans, and in a few days destroyed Assad’s naval, air and rocket capacity. Israeli commandos occupy the strategic summit of Mount Hermon, in southern Syria.
“A year ago, I said something simple: we would change the face of the Middle East, and we are indeed doing so,” Netanyahu said earlier this month after a phone call with President-elect Donald Trump.
That ally will soon move into the White House. The incoming president has chosen as ambassador to Israel a Christian evangelical who won’t bother with platitudes about a future Palestinian state.
Though pro-Palestine protests have become commonplace in Western capitals, and Western leaders have stiffened their rhetoric, arms deliveries to Israel have continued.
There are stark partisan and age divides when it comes to Western support for Israel. But polling in the United States suggests that views on Israel, the Palestinians and the war have not changed much in the past year – or even since before October 7.
In the US, according to a survey by the Pearson Institute/AP-NORC, 40% of those polled said in November 2023 that Israel had “gone too far” in its war in Gaza. That rose to 50% by January. But by September this year, it was back down to 42%.
Public support for military aid to Israel has barely budged. Sympathy has risen for both Palestinians and Israelis. The number of Americans who say a hostage deal is “extremely” important has decreased slightly, along with the number who say it is “extremely” important to provide aid to the Palestinians. Strong support for a permanent ceasefire is more or less the same as it was a year ago, at 52%.
Death, indictments, and protest
That Netanyahu has recovered as he has is even more surprising given the devastation 2024 has brought.
Ninety-six hostages taken on October 7 remain in Gaza. Many are believed to be dead.
Fewer Israelis think the country is in a “very bad” situation, according to a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, but still nearly half hold that view.
Israel’s war in Gaza has killed tens of thousands – the majority of whom are women and children, according to the UN.
In the Western world, politicians and protesters alike are criticizing Israel in a way once thought to be impossible.
It is unclear whether Netanyahu can travel to Europe or any of 124 nations that are bound to honor the ICC’s arrest warrant for him and his former defense minister. The ICC prosecutor says that the prime minister has “intentionally and knowingly” deprived Gazans of humanitarian supplies with the aim of starving them, and is responsible for attacks targeted at civilians. Netanyahu accused the court of “moral bankruptcy” and said the charges were aimed at deterring Israel “from exercising our natural right to defend ourselves.”
Ireland, South Africa, and Amnesty International have all leveled genocide accusations at Israel – the refuge for the Jews, the people for whom the Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin coined the term. Israeli lawyers have rejected that claim as “grossly distorted.”
He had already been the first Israeli prime minister to face criminal charges and prison time. In December, he became the first prime minister to defend himself in a courtroom.
The war has been the longest and most expensive in Israel’s history. Tourism is barely existent. Businesses are closing their doors.
And though Netanyahu ends the year much better off than he started it, his future is far from secure.
Israeli politics is as fractured as ever, and he remains a deeply divisive figure. His governing coalition is more stable, but still fragile. Israel’s image internationally may be forever altered. A ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza appears close but remains elusive. Iran is weakened but remains a serious threat.
