Saturday | March 22, 2025
Former US President Donald Trump has said he believes Vladimir Putin wants peace. However, Ukraine and its European allies remain unconvinced. Even Putin himself has claimed he wants peace, yet when given the chance to sign a peace agreement, he declined.
But what Putin truly desires goes far beyond peace.
The Russian president has been clear about his belief that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state. He has also repeatedly stated that he wants NATO to retreat to its Cold War-era boundaries. More than that, though, Putin envisions a new global order — one where Russia plays a dominant role.
Putin and several of his closest allies came from the remnants of the KGB, the Soviet-era intelligence agency. The collapse of the Soviet Union remains a deep humiliation for them, and they have never accepted the global power shift that followed.
Putin came to power during the turbulent 1990s when Russia’s economy collapsed and had to be bailed out by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — a national embarrassment for a former superpower. However, after Putin became president in 2000, rising oil prices made Russia wealthier and gave it a louder voice on the world stage. Russia even secured a spot in the G7, transforming it into the G8.
But that wasn’t enough for Putin. Kristine Berzina, a managing director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNN that Putin was willing to sacrifice his country’s newfound economic stability in pursuit of larger geopolitical goals. Russia was expelled from the G8, hit with Western sanctions, and isolated internationally because of its aggression toward Ukraine.
Berzina noted that merely being part of the G7 was never enough for Russia. “Being the eighth in the G7 doesn’t align with Russia’s sense of exceptionalism,” she said. “Russia is the largest country in the world and one of the richest in natural resources — how can it be just another player?”
Understanding what Putin wants from ongoing talks with the US requires recognizing that the discussions are happening not because Russia’s ambitions have changed, but because the US shifted its policy approach under Trump.
Donald Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end quickly — even if that means Ukraine losing more territory. This gives Putin little reason not to engage in talks.
Trump has claimed that “Russia holds all the cards” in the conflict, but the reality on the battlefield tells a different story. The war has been largely deadlocked for the past two years. While Russia has made some small advances, it is far from a decisive victory — though that could change if the US were to cut off military aid and intelligence to Ukraine.
“Putin went into Ukraine expecting a quick and easy victory,” said Mark Galeotti, a leading Russia analyst, in an interview with CNN. “Three years in, he controls about 20% of Ukraine — but at a devastating cost. The Russians are essentially losing, but the Ukrainians are losing faster.”
For Putin and his inner circle, Trump’s push for a ceasefire represents a chance to secure short-term gains while staying focused on long-term ambitions.
“Putin is an opportunist,” Galeotti explained. “He thrives on creating dynamic, chaotic situations that generate new opportunities. Once those opportunities emerge, he can pick the one that suits him best — and he’s always ready to change course if needed.”
Long term plan
Putin and his aides have made it clear that their long-term ambitions remain unchanged. Even as they talk about peace, Russian officials continue to insist that the “root causes” of the conflict must be “eliminated.”
From the Kremlin’s perspective, these “root causes” are Ukraine’s sovereignty, its democratically elected president Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO’s eastward expansion over the past 30 years.
Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with the aim of toppling the government in Kyiv and installing a pro-Moscow regime. His goal was to transform Ukraine into a vassal state, similar to Belarus, and prevent it from aligning with the European Union and NATO.
While Putin has failed to achieve this militarily, that doesn’t mean he has abandoned the objective. He may now seek to achieve it by other means.
“The easiest way for Russia to get what it wants in another country isn’t through military action, but through interference in the electoral process,” said Kristine Berzina, a managing director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She suggested that Moscow could attempt this once a ceasefire is in place.
This likely explains why Russia continues to question Zelensky’s legitimacy and push for an election — and why the Kremlin welcomed Trump’s suggestion that Zelensky is “a dictator without elections.” Ukraine’s martial law, imposed due to Russia’s invasion, prevents elections from being held while the conflict continues.
Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, have dismissed the idea of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon. Putin has demanded that a US commitment to keep Ukraine out of NATO be part of any ceasefire agreement.
But Ukraine’s European allies remain deeply skeptical of Putin’s promises. Berzina noted that many in Europe no longer trust Putin’s word.
“No matter what Trump and Putin think they can arrange this week or this year, most Europeans now see Putin as fundamentally untrustworthy,” she said.
“There’s always a chance that Russia could try its hand again militarily — and that’s why European leaders are very clear-eyed about the potential for future conflict.”
It’s all personal
Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and security expert living in exile in London, believes that Putin and his aides see an opportunity with Trump.
“They think they can win some tactical battles with Trump,” Soldatov said, “but they know he won’t give them what they really want — a complete reshaping of Europe’s security order.”
For the Kremlin, this isn’t just a war with Ukraine — it’s a broader confrontation with the West. “A lot of people in Moscow don’t believe they can get any kind of lasting agreement with the US,” Soldatov told CNN.
Russia’s deep suspicion of the US dates back decades. “It’s personal for them,” Soldatov explained. “They were all young KGB officers when the Soviet Union collapsed. They lost their social standing, their place in Russian society, and even their country as they saw it. It was profoundly humiliating.”
This sense of humiliation has fueled a long-standing belief among Russian elites that the West has sought to destroy and dominate Russia for centuries. “It’s not just propaganda,” Soldatov said. “They genuinely believe this.”
Putin’s justification for the war in Ukraine is also rooted in his distorted view of history — one that extends beyond the fall of the Soviet Union. He has repeatedly argued that Ukraine is not a legitimate country because it is part of a larger “historical Russia.”
Experts have dismissed this narrative as nonsense.
“What Putin is referring to is the fact that Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus share a political ancestor called Rus,” said Monica White, an associate professor in Russian and Slavonic Studies at the University of Nottingham. “But Rus was a medieval political entity — not a modern state. To claim that Ukraine has no right to exist because of this shared ancestry is absurd. No modern country looks the same as it did in the 10th century.”
Putin has often leaned on Russia’s religious identity to justify his ambitions. Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, has been one of the most vocal supporters of the war.
“After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia lost its connection with the ancestral Orthodox lands,” said Monica White, an associate professor in Russian and Slavonic Studies at the University of Nottingham. “Part of Putin’s project is to try to restore that thread, linking 10th-century Rus with a pure Orthodox continuity.”
White compared Putin’s strategy to that of the early Romanov Tsars, who sought to reclaim Orthodox lands under Ottoman or Catholic control — a goal they eventually achieved.
At its core, Putin’s ambition is to return Russia to the global stage with authority. White suggested that Putin hopes to achieve this by driving a wedge between Europe and the US while forming alliances with the West’s other adversaries.
“Russia wants to be at all the important tables,” White explained. “That might not mean territorial conquest in Europe, but it does mean playing a leading role in a powerful bloc — possibly alongside China, Iran, or others — a bloc defined by its willingness to disrupt and destabilize.”
Putin clearly believes that Russia — the largest country in the world by area — should have a say in how the world is run. And he may find a like-minded partner in Donald Trump.
Trump has made it clear that he believes the biggest and most powerful countries should get what they want — whether it’s Greenland, the Panama Canal, or a piece of Ukraine.
“I think the fundamental point is that, as far as Trump is concerned, Ukraine is a bought-and-paid-for vassal state,” said Mark Galeotti, a leading Russia analyst. “Trump seems to believe that the US will work out some kind of deal with Russia and then present it to Ukraine — whether Ukraine likes it or not.”
