Sunday | 23rd November 2025
This year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to build Europe’s strongest army – a bold and politically risky promise for a country whose armed forces have endured decades of chronic underinvestment, equipment shortages, and reputation problems.
The coalition government now hopes that a sweeping new military service bill, agreed upon last week after lengthy negotiations, will lay the foundation for that transformation. The reform is being presented as a historic, urgent response to a rapidly changing security environment: the perceived threat from Russia, mounting warnings from NATO commanders, and the Trump administration’s insistence that Europe take far more responsibility for its own defense as the US redirects its foreign-policy priorities.
Under the proposal, Germany aims to expand its force to 260,000 full-time soldiers, up from about 180,000 currently, and maintain an additional 200,000 reservists by 2035. It would be the largest German military build-up since the end of the Cold War.
Incentives first — conscription if necessary
The government says it hopes to reach these numbers primarily through voluntary enlistment. To encourage sign-ups, the Defense Ministry is rolling out a suite of new incentives, including an increased starting salary of €2,600 ($3,000) per month, up €450 from current levels, along with new benefits and career guarantees.
However, if voluntary recruitment fails, the bill gives the state the power to enact mandatory call-ups. Beginning next year, all 18-year-olds will receive a questionnaire assessing their interest in service. For men, completing it will be obligatory. And starting in 2027, 18-year-old men will face mandatory medical assessments, laying the groundwork for selective conscription should Germany need to activate it.
The reforms come at a time of growing unease across Europe. Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, and Western intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that Moscow could test NATO’s defenses next — potentially within a matter of years.
General Carsten Breuer, Germany’s chief of defense, underscored the urgency during an interview with the BBC in June, warning that NATO must be ready for a potential Russian attack as early as 2029. That timeline has amplified pressure on Berlin to accelerate its military overhaul.
A messy political debate
Negotiations between Chancellor Merz’s conservative CDU and the center-left SPD were contentious. One early idea floated by some CDU lawmakers — a “lottery-style” draft system, in which young men would be randomly selected first for screening and then again for service — quickly proved too controversial and was abandoned.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius emphasized that the government should first exhaust all voluntary pathways, arguing that the Bundeswehr would benefit from highly motivated recruits. “Financial incentives and better career prospects,” he said, should drive enlistment, not coercion.
Germany’s last system of mandatory military service was suspended in 2011, following years of debate about its fairness and relevance. Since then, the military has operated as an entirely voluntary force — but one that struggled to meet recruitment goals long before the war in Ukraine renewed attention on defense.
The new bill must still pass the Bundestag, where lawmakers are expected to vote before year’s end. If approved, the system would take effect on January 1, 2026.
Pistorius has tried to calm public anxieties. “There is no reason for concern, no reason for fear,” he said, stressing that deterrence is the best safeguard against conflict. He even suggested that Germany’s approach could become a model for other European states, many of which are also debating how to rebuild their militaries.
Public resistance — especially from the left
Still, the proposals remain deeply controversial. Among Germany’s political left, resistance to any form of conscription is strong. An October poll by Forsa found that 80% of voters for the left-wing Die Linke party opposed the idea outright.
Public sentiment among young people also appears divided. A 17-year-old interviewed by CNN acknowledged Germany’s need for self-defense but questioned the personal implications:
“I love Germany. But I don’t know if I want to fight for this country. I have a different life in mind than being at war.”
Others voice similar concerns: losing valuable years of education, being pushed into an institution they don’t trust, or being forced to participate in conflicts they oppose. Some, like 21-year-old Leonid Bekjarov, support strengthening Germany’s military in principle but reject mandatory service as too extreme.
Official statistics reflect this unease. Applications for conscientious objector status have surged, reaching their highest levels since conscription was suspended. Between January and October 2025 alone, 3,034 people applied — a sharp rise fueled by fears that compulsory service is returning.
A military hollowed out by time
For decades, Germany’s Bundeswehr was shaped by post-war pacifism and a long-held assumption that Europe faced no direct military threats. Defense budgets routinely fell below NATO’s 2% benchmark, and political leaders often avoided discussing military strength, wary of Germany’s past.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered those assumptions. Then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a dramatic “Zeitenwende” — a turning point in German security policy — and committed €100 billion to modernize the Bundeswehr. Even symbolic gestures changed: in 2024, Germany held its first Veterans Day since World War II.
The shift accelerated under Merz, who has framed Germany’s future security in stark terms. He has vowed to double defense spending, expand the army, and build a force capable of deterring Russian aggression. “Putin only understands the language of power,” Merz warned earlier this year.
A race against time
Analysts like Minna Ålander of Chatham House agree that Germany’s size and central geographic position give it the potential to be Europe’s backbone in any conventional defense scenario. But scaling up the Bundeswehr will take time.
“If Germany meets its personnel targets, it would be a major boost for Europe,” Ålander said. “But that reality is still years away — likely well into the 2030s.”
With NATO commanders warning of a shrinking window of opportunity, that timeline raises an uncomfortable question:
Will Germany be ready in time?
