Monday | 2nd February 2026.
San José, Costa Rica — Conservative populist Laura Fernández claimed victory in Costa Rica’s presidential election on Sunday, as early results showed her not only clearing the threshold needed to avoid a runoff but also leading her party toward a commanding majority in Congress. The vote unfolded against a backdrop of rising crime, voter disillusionment and mounting anxiety over the country’s social model — long celebrated as an exception in a turbulent region.
With more than 80% of polling stations reporting, Fernández had secured 48.94% of the vote, according to preliminary results from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Under Costa Rican law, a candidate who wins at least 40% in the first round is declared president outright, eliminating the need for a runoff between the top two contenders.
Fernández, a former minister and close ally of outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, was widely seen as the candidate of continuity. Handpicked by Chaves to succeed him, she campaigned on a promise to double down on his confrontational governing style and hardline security agenda — a message that resonated with voters unsettled by a surge in violent crime.
“Costa Rica has voted for the continuity of change,” Fernández told cheering supporters in San José after the early results were announced. “A change that seeks to restore and strengthen institutions and return them to the sovereign people, in order to create greater well-being and prosperity.”
Her closest rival, Álvaro Ramos — a centrist economist representing Costa Rica’s oldest political party — conceded defeat late Sunday night. In a brief statement, Ramos said his party would “support her when her decisions are for the good of the country,” signaling a pragmatic response to an election that appeared to leave the opposition fragmented and weakened.
Early projections also indicated that Fernández’s Sovereign People’s Party would secure around 30 seats in the 57-member Legislative Assembly, a dramatic jump from its current eight seats. If confirmed, the result would give Fernández rare legislative leverage in a country more accustomed to divided government — and could allow her to move swiftly on security, economic and institutional reforms.
A security crisis in a country without an army
The central issue of the campaign — and the clearest driver of Fernández’s victory — was security. Polling throughout the year consistently showed that Costa Ricans viewed crime as their top concern, eclipsing even inflation and unemployment.
That anxiety marks a striking shift for a country long regarded as one of Latin America’s safest and most stable democracies. Costa Rica abolished its military in 1948, redirecting public spending toward education, healthcare and environmental protection. The absence of an army has become a cornerstone of national identity and a source of pride in a region scarred by coups, dictatorships and civil wars.
Yet official figures suggest that Costa Rica’s reputation for tranquility has eroded rapidly. The past three years have been among the most violent in the country’s modern history, with 905 homicides recorded in 2023 — the highest number ever documented. Authorities attribute much of the bloodshed to drug trafficking networks exploiting Costa Rica’s geography as a transit hub between South America and the United States.
In January, the US Treasury Department alleged that Costa Rica has become a “key global cocaine transshipment point,” underscoring growing international concern about the country’s vulnerability to organized crime.
Costa Rica’s experience mirrors a broader regional trend. In recent elections across Latin America — from Ecuador to Chile to Honduras — voters have increasingly rewarded candidates promising tough, even punitive, approaches to crime.
No leader looms larger over that regional debate than El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. The self-described “dictator” has slashed homicide rates to historic lows through mass arrests and an aggressive police crackdown, but his strategy has drawn sharp criticism from human rights groups, particularly over conditions at the notorious Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT).
Despite those criticisms, Bukele remains immensely popular across Latin America — including in Costa Rica. His influence was on display last month when the Costa Rican government broke ground on a new maximum-security prison modeled after CECOT, with Bukele himself offering public support.
“Nayib Bukele’s presence is important, legitimate, and honors us,” President Chaves said at the ceremony, signaling an ideological alignment that Fernández has embraced rather than distanced herself from.
Fraying social foundations
According to José Andrés Díaz González, a political scientist at Costa Rica’s National University in Heredia, the security crisis cannot be separated from the gradual erosion of the country’s social institutions.
“The foundations of the social pact are being weakened,” Díaz told CNN. “Health, with the accelerated deterioration of the Costa Rican Social Security Fund; education, as an engine of social mobility; and security, with the increase in homicides and the loss of the feeling of safety in people’s homes.”
Díaz also warned that Costa Rica is approaching a demographic turning point that could intensify existing pressures. Like many countries, Costa Rica’s population is aging, meaning fewer workers will be supporting a growing number of retirees.
“We are in a demographic transition that implies that fewer people will have to produce more,” he said. “In 15 or 20 years, the pension system will face greater strain, with fewer contributors, lower tax revenues and rising demands for elder care.”
Growth that leaves many behind
Economically, Costa Rica presents a paradox. According to a 2025 report from the State of the Nation Program (PEN), a respected local think tank, the country experienced a notable rebound in 2024 and early 2025 following pandemic-era disruptions.
Costa Rica became the first Central American country to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2021, and recent OECD reports describe an “improved” fiscal outlook, falling unemployment, declining public debt and an export sector increasingly driven by high-tech products.
Among comparable economies, the OECD noted, Costa Rica’s growth has been “more resilient and stronger.”
But those topline indicators mask deeper inequalities, said PEN political scientist Leonardo Merino.
“Costa Rica has economic growth that is disengaged from people’s well-being,” Merino told CNN. He pointed out that much of the expansion is concentrated in “free trade zones,” which offer generous tax incentives and customs exemptions to multinational firms.
“Free trade zones are the main engine of growth, but they account for only about 12% of employment and roughly 15% of production,” Merino said. “The domestic economy — where most Costa Ricans actually live and work — is growing very little and has effectively been abandoned.”
The OECD itself echoed that concern, warning that innovation and productivity remain weak outside the export-oriented enclaves.
Political apathy and an uncertain future
These pressures have contributed to a steady decline in political engagement. Merino noted that three decades ago, nearly all Costa Ricans identified with a political party. Today, that figure has fallen to roughly 20%.
“It’s a worrying trend,” he said. “Fewer people are voting, young people are participating less, and now even older adults are staying away from the polls.”
In 2022, Costa Rica recorded its lowest voter turnout in recent history, with nearly 40% of eligible voters abstaining.
Both Díaz and Merino argue that the country’s century-old social pact — once anchored by strong institutions, environmental stewardship and broad social mobility — is now under strain. Environmentalism, long as central to Costa Rica’s global image as its lack of a standing army, is increasingly contested. Proposals to lift a two-decade ban on fossil fuel exploration and expand mining and resource extraction have gained political traction.
“The deterioration is not inevitable,” Díaz said. “But if nothing is done, it will continue — and so far no political party has addressed this challenge with the seriousness it demands.”
With the vote now concluded, Costa Rica stands at a crossroads. Fernández’s apparent first-round victory and legislative majority could usher in a period of decisive — and controversial — governance. More broadly, the election tests whether the country’s leaders can reconnect with an increasingly disengaged public and repair the social fabric that once set Costa Rica apart.
The question many Costa Ricans are now asking is stark: can an army-less nation known for its environmentalism and social investment confront crime without sacrificing the democratic values that defined it — or is it on the path to becoming the next El Salvador?
